"Latin Reporters", a group of journalists that analyses on a regular basis Latin- American and Spanish events, publish today their analysis of the Colombian situation. Generally well informed about the situation in this country, they put forward some interesting theories: to be viewed with the necessary hindsight; this group made some very surprising statements, one for example an allegation that "a noisy minority among the many supporters of Ingrid Betancourt approve of the Marxist rebels who kidnapped her"…. which either shows a very fertile imagination or a very gullible interpretation of some influential sections of the media in Colombia".

The Latin Reporters article:

Ingrid Betancourt if is she is still alive, and other hostages are at risk of remaining for another long period in the hands of FARC. According to FARC, "there will be no humanitarian exchange" under President Alvaro Uribe, who surveys predict will be re- elected in May giving him four more years as head of government in Colombia.

Hopes created by the proposal put by France, Switzerland and Spain are thus dashed. Presented on behalf of the three European countries on 12 December last and accepted immediately by President Uribe, the proposal was based on a temporary demilitarised zone, guaranteed by international observers, in an area of 180 square kms in the south -west of Colombia, near El Retiro.

Representatives from the Government and FARC were to be invited to that place to negotiate the freeing of 59 political and military hostages in exchange (including Ingrid Betancourt, kidnapped on 23 February 2002) in exchange for some 5000 rebels currently held in prison.

The fact that the Colombian President accepted a temporary demilitarisation of a part of the national territory was considered to be a major concession. It had raised the hopes of the hostages' families. These families want to believe that the rebel group will not flatly refuse a prisoner exchange, the rebels prefer to blame President Uribe for the destruction of the exchange.

In a statement entitled "With Uribe, there will be no humanitarian exchange", FARC leave little room for optimism. In fact they are demanding a negotiator appointed by the President "who will also be willing to negotiate a solution to the conflict" that has embroiled Colombia for more than forty years. This request overwhelms and complicates the much narrower issue of a prisoner exchange.

As well, FARC caused some surprise by stating "they had not yet got details" about the proposal presented to them on 12 December by Paris, Berne and Madrid.

FARC restated that the extradition to the USA of two of their senior personnel, "Simon and Sonia", remains " an insurmountable obstacle" in the way of an eventual humanitarian exchange.

The most worrying aspect of their statement is that FARC continue to accuse President Uribe of wanting to free, militarily, hostages held by the rebels.

The rebels blame a failed rescue attempt for the death of two hostages "the Governor of Antioquia and the former Minister for Defence, Echeverri Mejia"

However, for the majority of those kidnapped by FARC, among them Ingrid Betancourt, no proof of life has been given for several years. Even if President Uribe does not rule out military rescue attempts, there is still a risk that FARC might blame the death of key hostages, who have already died, on an impending action of the Colombian army that would be presented by the rebels as an ill-considered rescue attempt.

President Uribe, whose popularity remains at 70%, would then risk his national and international reputation prior to the National Assembly elections in March and the Presidential elections in May.

Probable or possible reasons for FARC's refusal

- President Uribe was too quick to announce publicly that he was in favour of the proposal put by France, Switzerland and Spain. The guerrilla do not wish to give the impression that they were going to follow a road that would appear to have been opened by its worst enemy.

- Colombia is in the middle of an election campaign and a humanitarian agreement would facilitate the re-election, in May 2006 of President Uribe who according to surveys is tipped to win.

- The USA will definitely not be willing to free two rebel leaders extradited by the Colombian Government, as FARC have often demanded in relation to the humanitarian agreement. The two leaders are "Simon Trinidad"(aka Juvenal Ricardo Palmers) and "Sonia"(aka Omaira Rojas Cabrera). They must appear before the US courts charged with drug trafficking.

- Maintaining the need for security, FARC were offering to negotiate the humanitarian exchange in a demilitarised zone of 800 square kms, or an area four times greater that the zone proposed by the French Swiss and Spanish representatives. The second in command, Raul Reyes has confirmed that this is still a key FARC demand.

- By "demilitarisation", FARC mean the withdrawal of the army and the police but not of the rebels. France, Switzerland and Spain envisage the withdrawal of all armed groups from the demilitarised zone where negotiations will take place. Rebel forces would then lose the advantage accruing from an occupation gained through non-military means.

- The demilitarisation of the zone proposed by the three European countries concerns all armed groups so FARC would then have been unable to organise in that location, in front of international media, huge parades of armed rebels and meetings that, according to FARC would have boosted their profile internationally in the zone that President Andres Pastrana (1998-12002) had demilitarised, as part of his mandate, to try, in vain, to negotiate for peace.

- The undisclosed death of one or more high profile hostages.

- The Marxist group who have been fighting since 1964, FARC could now think that time is on their side. The swing to the left is in effect increasing in Latin America. The Colombian rebel group celebrated the electoral success in Bolivia of the native Indian Evo Morales, who is close to Fidel Castro and the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The pro-American free-trade policies of President Alvaro Uribe is in danger of isolating Colombia in a region where ideology is changing and is affecting in various degrees Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay